ReallyRight

California Assembly Race Undecided After a Week of Counting

Sorry I have been gone from this blog for a while but I’m back now. It is now a week since the June 3rd primary in California. Yeah, the one without the top of the ticket candidates.

Amazingly, in this age of instant gratification and computer technology, one of the local races is far from over. California’s 15th Assembly District on the Republican side is far from decided. There were four candidates in this race. Between the four, they spent in excess of one million dollars for a job that pays only ten percent of that amount.

Once, a safe Republican district, the Fifteenth has seen the Republican registration advantage erode and at least on paper, the Democrats now out number Republicans in the District.

The two leading candidates are opposites in personality and temperament.

Robert Rao (pronounced Ray-oh) made his fortune as a car dealer. He had dealerships in several California cities. He is a self-made millionaire and mostly retired. He decided to enter politics because he was tired of the B.S. that bureaucrats and politicians keep mandating on the private sector. In short he’s mad as hell and decided that someone needs to do something. One day he decided that someone should be him.

Abram Wilson is a mellow guy that has been mayor of a mid-sized city in the East Bay Area. A veteran and former financial guy, Wilson is quiet and soft-spoken. He once managed portfolios worth tens of billions of dollars. He brought this expertise to his job as mayor and has worked wonders for his city. Wilson has decided that Sacramento could use someone with his fiscal background.

I have met with both men and decided to hitch my proverbial wagon to Rao. Wilson reminded me of the old Rodney KingWhy can’t we all just get along” or George W Bush’ New tone.” I felt that we need someone in Sacramento that will fight for us not find better ways to get along with Democrats. Arnold has been great at that for the past few years and Republicans are in worse shape now than before he took office as Governor.

Anyway, the ballot results per the Secretary of State’s website put Wilson up by 449 votes. The California Republican Party sent out congratulations to Wilson and so did defeated candidate Judy Lloyd. Better luck next time right? Wrong!

As it turns out, there are over 100,000 votes uncounted in the counties that comprise AD 15. A portion of these votes are in the district but how many?

Each of the four candidates seemed to have their bases of electoral majority. Wilson did well in Contra Costa country. Scott Kamena won in Alameda County. Judy Lloyd won Sacramento and San Joaquin Counties. However, Rao came in second in Alameda, Sacramento and Contra Costa counties.

Note to readers, the closer you get to Judy Lloyd’s home the lower she did. Translation, those that know her best voted for another candidate. The places were she underwent the least amount of scrutiny, were the ones that she did best in.

I started looking at the numbers on Wednesday (the day after the election). One of the trends that I noticed was that Rao beat Wilson 2:1 in Alameda and Sacramento counties. He and Wilson were about even in San Joaquin. It was evident that all of Wilson’s eggs were in one basket: Contra Costa. He did virtually no campaigning outside of his home turf.

The numbers that give Rao hope are the vote by mail ballots. Sacramento said they had over 66 thousand uncounted ballots. Contra Costa said they had about 22 thousand. San Joaquin had about 9 thousand. If Alameda has more than Contra Costa, then Wilson should be toast. Wilson has too thin of a margin to overcome 2:1 trends for Rao in Sacramento and Alameda.

By Friday, June 6th, Wilson’s lead had started to erode. He was down to 177 votes. At close of business on Monday, the lead for Wilson was down to 134 votes.

It appears that Contra Costa will be the first of the four counties to have all their votes totaled. Sacramento thinks they will have final numbers by Friday June 13. The big question is what is happening in Alameda County? I think by close of business on June 10th, Rao will be in the lead!

I will keep you posted.

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Update: Congratulations to Mayor Wilson on his Primary victory. 242 votes

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